Abstract：The overall statistics of the accuracy of eight statistical and dynamical tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques used in the East China Regional Meteorological Center during the 2008 and 2009 western North Pacific typhoon seasons were evaluated herein. Skill scores which were calculated based on contingency tables show that the forecast skill of the selected techniques did not persistently decline with the increasing forecast time. The probabilities of the forecast intensity inaccuracy being within 6 m s-1 and greater than 15 m s-1 were examined in the study. Additionally, the majority of the forecasts were featured by underintensity forecasts in 2008, while some guidance showed pronounced overforecasts at relatively long forecast intervals in 2009. The forecast biases and overintensity forecast errors at typhoon dissipation were verified as well.
Caizhu Chen, Qingqing Li, Jinhua Yu et al., 2012: Evaluating the Performance of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance. Part I: Basic Characteristics. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 1(3), 340-352.