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Accepts
Note: The papers published below will continue to be available from this page until they are assigned to an issue. To see an article, click its [PDF] link. To review many abstracts, check the boxes to the left of the titles you want, and click the 'Selected articles' button. To see one abstract at a time, click its [Abstract] link.
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Current Technology for Alerting and Warning Tropical Cyclones in Thailand

Patchara Petvirojchai, Surapong Sarapa
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The main objective of this paper is to present the current status of the improvement technology for tropical cyclones alerting and warning in Thailand. In 2017, Thai Meteorological Department upgraded Weather Forecasting system with Geogrid data for TMD domain with a High Performance Computer. The use of Himawari satellite data with receiving and analysis facilities provided by the Japan Government leads to timely monitoring of tropical storm events. The Typhoon Committee’s project on the network of weather radar plays supporting roles in storms’ analysis and their impacts. Currently, TMD actively makes use of internet social-media, including Google Map and Facebook as an alternative to release information to the public.
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A Challenge of the Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area

Xiaotu Lei, Waikin Wong, Clarence Fong
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The Experiment on Typhoon Intensity Change in Coastal Area (EXOTICCA) was proposed by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) and endorsed by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC). The major goals and objectives of the EXOTICCA are: 1) to conduct the field
campaigns on the intensity and structural characteristics of the target offshore and landfall tropical cyclones by employing integrated and novel observation techniques, and 2) to conduct demonstration research on the utilization of the synergized field observation data with the aim of deepening the understanding of the mechanism of structure and intensity changes, to improve the relevant capability of operational analysis, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models forecast, reliable storm surge and flooding and associated risk assessment. The Organizational structure and implementation schedule etc. are also introduced in this paper.
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Some Special Characteristics of Track and Intensity of Typhoons over the Western North Pacific

Tarasha Khurana, S. K. Bhattacharya, S. D. Kotal
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Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Best Track data from 1995 to 2014 are processed to examine some specific patterns and trends shown by Typhoons over the Western North Pacific. With a multivariate dataset of 588 TC cases in hand, we carry out a sub-domain analysis by dividing the Western North Pacific region into domains of 2°x2° and find the preferred regions of genesis, favourable direction of movement, steep recurvature, rapid intensification, and rapid decay. The region from longitude 132°E to 134°E and latitude 16°N to 18°N showed the highest number of cases (19) for rapid intensification (RI) and a general pattern is found that the RI systems occurred mostly in the later half of the year with a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index. Similarly, the domain from longitude 114°E to 116°E and latitude 26°N to 28°N had the highest probability of 0.857 for rapid decay. The probabilities of recurvature for each sub-domain were calculated for angles 30°, 45°, 60°, 90°, 120° and 150°. The sub-domain around longitude 118°E and latitude 12°N had the steepest recurve of 168.69°. It also had a high probability of 0.714 for a recurvature of greater than 90°. The most taken direction of movement of typhoons around the Western North Pacific were analysed in different ways and along the 16 points of compass, the direction from 270° to 292.5° was found to be the most preferred direction of movement.
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An Introduction of Advanced Technology for Tropical Cyclone Observation, Analysis and Forecast in JMA

Yoshiaki Takeuchi
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  Impact-based forecasts and risk-based warnings are the key approach to reduce disasters caused by tropical cyclones (TCs). This review paper highlights Japan Meteorological Agency’s and RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center’s development and efforts to operationalization of various TC observation, analysis and numerical weather prediction (NWP) techniques, which are the fundamental basis of the approach.   TC monitoring has been carried out with geostationary satellites named Himawari series since 1978. Since 2015 the first new generation satellite Himawari-8 has established new era of the TC monitoring at a high resolution and frequency. In addition, space-borne microwave instruments have provided many hydrological properties around TC.   As for ground based observation, radar is a powerful tool to investigate the TC structure characterized by rain distribution and wind fields. A phased-array radar gives us the vivid pictures of individual cumulonimbus with its quick scan ability. RSMC-Tokyo uses the Himawari-8/9 images, atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), space-borne microwave images, sea surface winds of scatterometer, and ground-based radar wind observation for the TC intensity analysis.   For NWP, many efforts have been put into new assimilation schemes, high-resolution models and combined atmosphere-ocean models. Ensemble based analysis and forecast system are considered to be effective to estimate the uncertainty of the TC forecasts.
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A Short Note on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

Jeff Callaghan
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Hurricanes Harvey and Irma had a huge impact on the Southern United States and in the case of Irma, also parts of the Caribbean Islands. Here we focus on the impact of both hurricanes following a period of rapid intensification. The structure of hurricanes were examined using wind data made available from aircraft
reconnaissance missions. Intense convection developed in a region where the winds in the lower to middle levels turned anticyclonically with height. Earlier studies showed that this wind structure was similar to that would be found in an ascent region theoretically associated with Quasi-Geostrophic warm air advection.
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Tropical Cyclone Amos (2016)
Forecasting Challenges: A Model’s Perspective

Tracey Dorian, Bill Ward, Yi-Leng Chen
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  The tropical cyclone (TC) named Amos (2016) that impacted the Samoan Islands on 23 April 2016 was a particularly difficult storm to forecast. Both the intensity changes and the track of Amos represent a significant challenge for forecasters and this is briefly summarized in this report.
  Model forecasts initially indicated that the cyclone would track south of the Samoan Islands. However, the forecasts generally changed to a direct hit over Samoa as a Category 4 storm at approximately 0000 UTC 24 April based on model cycles initialized at 0000 UTC 23 April.
  TC Amos’ central pressure dropped from 983 hPa to 957 hPa between 0000 UTC 21 April and 0000 UTC 23 April. The models did not pick up on this rapid intensification until the intensification had already begun around 0000 UTC 21 April. The models also struggled to capture the rapid weakening of TC Amos due to vertical wind shear that began 0000 UTC 24 April as the cyclone continued to move north of the islands.
  Because of the initially ominous track forecasts for TC Amos to hit land, preparations for a Category 3 or Category 4 cyclone were underway in the Samoan islands and the population prepared for the worst. After the center of the storm moved north of the islands as a weaker storm than anticipated, the residents of the Samoan Islands were both surprised and relieved that the cyclone only gave a “glancing blow” to the islands and that the impacts were not as bad as originally feared. An in-depth evaluation of this particular tropical cyclone helps to shed some light on model deficiencies and can be used to help determine future model changes.
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Applications of Numerical Modelling for the Study on Storm Surge in Typhoon Xangsane in the Central Coast of Vietnam

Tran Tho Dat, Dinh Duc Truong, Doan Quang Tri, Tran Quang Tien
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Understanding impacts of typhoons due to storm surge plays an important role in reducing damage in coastal areas. This study used the SWAN wave model to simulate the typhoon waves and the SuWAT model to simulate storm surge and inundation caused by Typhoon Xangsane in 2006 which landed in the Central Coast of Vietnam from Nghe An to Phu Yen Provinces. The wind-pressure field was calculated by the Fujita’s model and reanalysis data were inputted to the SWAN and SuWAT models. The simulated results of the typhoon wave showed that Typhoon Xangsane caused 5-7 m height waves in the coastal areas with a radius of 600 km. The results of the storm surge combined with the simulations of wind, pressure, wave, and tide in the coastal areas were estimated at 2 m. The simulated and calculated results of storm surge and inundation maps will help the decision makers in the Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control to reduce the impacts of natural disasters induced to storm surge in the near future.
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Current Technology for Alerting and Warning Tropical Cyclones in Thailand

Patchara Petvirojchai, Surapong Sarapa
Accept:
Full Text: PDF (0KB) (1)
Show Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to present the current status of the improvement technology for tropical cyclones alerting and warning in Thailand. In 2017, Thai Meteorological Department upgraded Weather Forecasting system with Geogrid data for TMD domain with a High Performance Computer. The use of Himawari satellite data with receiving and analysis facilities provided by the Japan Government leads to timely monitoring of tropical storm events. The Typhoon Committee’s project on the network of weather radar plays supporting roles in storms’ analysis and their impacts. Currently, TMD actively makes use of internet social-media, including Google Map and Facebook as an alternative to release information to the public.
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Evolution of thermodynamic structures during rapid growth and decay of extremely severe cyclonic storm CHAPALA (2015)

S. D. KOTAL, S. K. BHATTACHARYA
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The structure and evolution of inner-core convective bursts and their differences associated with rapid intensification (RI) and rapid decay (RD) of tropical cyclone CHAPALA are examined. The inception of RI was associated with substantial increase of convective heating and its vertical extent in the inner core. Increase in diabatic heating was of the order of 12-21 oC, particularly in the middle and upper troposphere. Latent heat release produced a diabatically generated potential vorticity (PV) in vertical column. The immediate cause of RI was a significant increase of moisture flux from surface to 500 hPa. This was accomplished primarily by updrafts of the order of 6-12 Pa s-1, representing the strong vertical motion distribution inside the warm core convective zone. The episode of deep convective bursts transpired during the period of RI. The evolving flow became highly symmetric and dominated by deep convective axisymmetric vortex structures. The RD coincided with the significant weakening in updraft of moisture flux consequently decrease of diabatic heating in the middle and upper troposphere and dissipation of upper and lower PV.
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A Diagnostic from Vertical Wind Profiles for Detecting Extreme Rainfall

Jeff Callaghan
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The damage and loss of life from fresh water flooding as Tropical Cyclones move inland and towards higher latitudes rivals the losses at the point of landfall. This makes it extremely important to understand the structure of these systems as some such events produce much less damaging rainfall. Extreme rainfall and major flooding events are studied around the Globe to examine the likely structure of weather systems which produce extreme rainfall. An extensive search for rare radio-sonde data has been carried out near where extreme rainfall and flooding has been reported. In almost every case atmospheric moisture content is high and the low-level wind direction turns anti-cyclonically with increasing height up to 500 hPa. The rare exception to the rule is when tropical thunderstorms generate extreme rainfall. This study extends previous work in Eastern Australia by showing that the link between turning winds and rainfall exists in both the tropics and temperate zones, and the link applies in cases of extreme rainfall and associated major flooding.
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 Asymmetric Inner Core Convection Leading to Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Jeff Callaghan
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One of the predictors used to forecast the rapid intensification of Tropical Cyclones (RI) is the symmetry of inner core convection which used infrared (IR) satellite imagery in the determination of this structure. This has led Forecasters and Researchers to conclude the symmetry of inner core convection was an important factor in RI. However we showed here using examples of RI that IR satellite imagery was not always a good guide to determine symmetry of inner core convection especially in the early stages of RI. However it has been previously shown that the heat released in these highly asymmetric convective bands may be transformed into the kinetic energy of the quasi-symmetric wind field and the available potential energy associated with the warm core. One of the most rapid RI cases had asymmetric inner core convection early in a six hour period where the Central Pressure dropped 29hPa and the sustained wind speed increased by 55knots(28.3ms-1). In other cases, where there was available inner core data, the inner core convection developed in a region where microwave imagery indicated asymmetric inner core convection. The convection was located where Dropsonde winds and Doppler radar winds from reconnaissance aircraft indicated a warm air advection pattern in that the winds turned anticyclonically with height in the lowest 5km of the atmosphere. Updrafts from this strong convection near the eye become upward extending centres of cyclonic vorticity and may also produce warming in the eye with adjacent broad subsiding currents. It was shown that models could not forecast the RI of severe tropical cyclone Marcia as recently as February 2015. In this case convection was formed more vigorously on the western flank under the influence of a warm air advection wind pattern and convection remained mostly on this western side as RI proceeded. This process needs to be understood on its influence on the models failing to forecast RI. Rare Doppler wind of Hurricane Hermine showed the wind structure as a band a convection on the storm’s eastern flank rapidly transformed into circular bands of convection as warm air advection winds increased around the inner core.

Copyright © 2012 Tropical Cyclone Research and Review