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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2018, 7 (2)   Published: 2018-05-15
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The World Meteorological Organization Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV): A Summary

Robert F. Rogers, Kevin Cheung, Russell L. Elsberry, Nadao Kohno
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2018, 7 (2): 77;  doi: 10.6057/2018TCRR02.01
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The Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) was held in Macao, China from 5-7 December 2017. The workshop was organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes in partnership with the WMO Tropical Cyclone Program. The workshop provided a forum for discussion between researchers and forecasters on the current status of tropical cyclone landfall processes and on priorities and opportunities for research. More than 60 leading research scientists and warning specialists working on topics related to tropical cyclone landfall examined current knowledge, forecasting and research trends from an integrated global perspective. The workshop offered a number of recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different tropical cyclone affected regions. The recommendations emanating from the workshop will be presented at the upcoming Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) (Hawaii, USA, 3-7 December 2018).

Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure at Landfall

Marie-Dominique Leroux, Kimberly Wood, Russell L. Elsberry, Esperanza O. Cayanan
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2018, 7 (2): 85;  doi: 10.6057/2018TCRR02.02
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This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent (2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLPIV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need
for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.

Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall

Kevin Cheung, Zifeng Yu, Russell L. Elsberry, Michael Bell
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2018, 7 (2): 106;  doi: 10.6057/2018TCRR02.03
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In preparation for the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-IV), a summary of recent research studies and the forecasting challenges of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall has been prepared. The extreme rainfall accumulations in Hurricane Harvey (2017) near Houston, Texas and Typhoon Damrey (2017) in southern Vietnam are examples of the TC rainfall forecasting challenges. Some progress is being made in understanding the internal rainfall dynamics via case studies. Environmental effects such as vertical wind shear and terrain-induced rainfall have been studied, as well as the rainfall relationships with TC intensity and structure. Numerical model predictions of TC-related rainfall have been improved via data assimilation, microphysics representation, improved resolution, and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast techniques. Some attempts have been made to improve the verification techniques as well. A basic forecast challenge for TC-related rainfall is monitoring the existing rainfall distribution via satellite or coastal radars, or from over-land rain gauges. Forecasters also need assistance in understanding how seemingly similar landfall locations relative to the TC experience different rainfall distributions. In addition, forecasters must cope with anomalous TC activity and landfall distributions in response to various environmental effects.

Recent Progress in Storm Surge Forecasting

Nadao Kohno, Shishir K. Dube, Mikhail Entel, S. H. M. Fakhruddin
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2018, 7 (2): 128;  doi: 10.6057/2018TCRR02.04
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This report briefly summarizes recent progress in storm surge forecasts, one of topics discussed during the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Process (IWTCLP 4) held during 5-8 December, 2017. In the workshop, improvement of storm surge forecasting system was mainly discussed with relevance to the problem of estimating the impacts of tropical cyclone landfall.
To deal with storm surges, accurate TC condition (predictions and forecasts) as input, reasonable storm surge predictions (with forecasting systems), and effective advisories/warnings (i.e. useful information products) are necessary. Therefore, we need to improve storm surge related matters systematically: input, prediction system, and effective information.
This report tries to highlight recent progress in the field of storm surges in relation to three key points: improvement in storm surge forecasting models/system, TC conditions as input for storm surge predictions, and informative products for end users.

Mind the Gap: Towards and Beyond Impact to Enhance Tropical Cyclone Risk Communication

Peter Otto, Amisha Mehta, Brooke Liu
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2018, 7 (2): 140;  doi: 10.6057/2018TCRR02.05
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Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.

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