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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2019, 8 (1)   Published: 2019-03-15
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Quasi Steady-State Hurricanes Revisited

John Persing, Michael T. Montgomery, Roger K. Smith, James C. McWilliams
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2019, 8 (1): 1;  doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR01.04
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We revisit the theoretical possibility of long-term, sustained tropical cyclone solutions using a state-of-the-art numerical model that incorporates the most recent observational guidance for subgrid scale parameters and airsea exchange coefficients of heat and momentum. Emphasis is placed on the realism of such solutions and the sources of cyclonic relative angular momentum (RAM) that are necessary to replenish that lost by friction at the surface. For simplicity, we confine our attention to strictly axisymmetric numerical experiments.
We are able to replicate Hakim’s long-term simulation of a quasi-steady state cyclone in a 1500 km radial domain. The structure of the wind field is found to be somewhat realistic compared to observations, but sustained by unrealistic processes. Artificial sources of cyclonic RAM are quantified and the lateral damping of the anticyclonic wind near the outer boundary is found to make the largest contribution to the source of cyclonic RAM. When the domain size is extended to 9,000 km radius and lateral damping is removed altogether, a quasi-steady vortex emerges, but the structure of this vortex has many unrealistic features. In this solution, the remaining upper-level Rayleigh damping contributes a major portion of the needed source of cyclonic RAM. In a simulation in which the upper-level damping is removed also, the solution is found to be neither quasi-steady nor realistic.
These findings call into question the realism of long-term, sustained tropical cyclone simulations, which require a sufficiently large source of cyclonic RAM to facilitate the existence of a quasi-steady state.

Forecast and Service Performance on Rapidly Intensification Process of Typhoons Rammasun (2014) and Hato (2017)

Qian Wang, Yinglong Xu, Na Wei, Shuai Wang and Hao Hu
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2019, 8 (1): 18;  doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR01.03
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Super typhoons Rammasun (No.1409) and Hato (No.1713) both underwent rapidly intensification (RI) in the northern part of South China Sea before they made landfall. Forecast skills and service performance of tropical cyclones’ RI process in the real-time operation is analyzed in this study. TCs are prone to intensify rapidly in the South China Sea, which is a complex process concluding complicated interaction between large scale environmental systems and tropical cyclone inner-core structure. The forecast performance of Rammasun and Hato shown that the subjective forecast of CMA has defect in the intensity forecast especially for the long-rang more than 48-hr. However, forecasters have chance to capture the signal of RI besides numerical operational models, which contribute to gain precious time for disaster reduction affairs. The role of local sea surface temperature and the warm core structure revealed by the numerical simulations are highlighted in doing comprehensive analysis in real-time forecast.

Scenario-Based Urban Flood Forecast with Flood Inundation Map

Jinhoon Kim, Hyoseob Cho
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2019, 8 (1): 27;  doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR01.05
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The objective of this study is to introduce how to apply the urban flood forecast with numerous flood inundation map scenario in Korea. In modeling of urban flood, drainage networks 1D model like SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) used to analysis stormwater runoff within drainage pipe system and 2D surface model used to simulate inundation area and depth. This 1D-2D model (drainage network 1D coupled to 2D surface model) is used to make the inundation map of urban flood. The accuracy of the 2D model is highly dependent of the input data resolution. The cell by cell running on these high surface resolution need to be required more computation time. Thus, the 1D-2D models have some limitations in using operational real-time forecast. In this sense,
the scenario-based approach can be a good alternative method to forecast urban flood. The flood inundation maps would be completed with 320 rainfall scenarios which are finely divided according to rainfall intensity and duration on the basis of design rainfall. The forecast process is very simple if we use pre-existing scenarios. Weuse a predicted radar rainfall as input for simulated scenario selection, and then selected inundation map would be serviced to people. In this study, the current results for the scenario-based urban flood forecast with flood inundation map are demonstrated.

Framework of Extreme Flood Risk Management in the Typhoon Country Region

Cho-Rong Kim
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2019, 8 (1): 35;  doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR01.01
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Recently, the occurrence of extreme flood events beyond the limits of infrastructures has caused considerable flood damage, destroying the flood-protection hydraulic structures. Flood damages have increased worldwide due to climate change and weather phenomena such as the global warming, El Niño and La Niña. According to the Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), extreme weather events such as heat wave, drought, and flood are expected to increase worldwide in the future. It is thus necessary to realize that larger and more frequent flood disasters are rapidly nearing us, and need to prepare for them accordingly.
This research provides a framework for extreme flood management, beginning with the establishment of extreme flood definition from a more general point of view through reviewing and analyzing various literature and references. The purpose of this research is to provide recommendations on extreme flood forecasting and identify status of typhoon committee member country. In addition, it is determined how the member countries of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee have responded to extreme flood.
The information and data of this research is based on the project entitled “Extreme Flood Forecasting System
(EFFS)” conducted by the Han River Flood Control Office of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
(MOLIT), Republic of Korea and Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT).

Establishment of Assessment System for Structural Flood Control Measures

Cho-Rong Kim
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2019, 8 (1): 46;  doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR01.02
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Due to extreme weather environment such as global warming and greenhouse effect, the risks of having flood damage has been increased with larger scale of flood damages. Therefore, it became necessary to consider modifying climate change, flood damage and its scale to the previous dimension measurement evaluation system. In this regard, it is needed to establish a comprehensive and integrated system to evaluate the most optimized measures for flood control through eliminating uncertainties of socio-economic impacts. Assessment System of Structural Flood Control Measures (ASFCM) was developed for determining investment priorities of the flood control measures and establishing the social infrastructure projects. ASFCM consists of three modules: 1) the initial setup and inputs module, 2) the flood and damage estimation module, and 3) the socio-economic analysis module.
First, we have to construct the D/B for flood damage estimation, which is the initial and input data about the estimation unit, property, historical flood damages, and applied area’s topographic & hydrological data. After that, it is important to classify local characteristic for constructing flood damage data. Five local characteristics (big city, medium size city, small city, farming area, and mountain area) are classified by criterion of application (population density). Next step is the floodplain simulation with HEC-RAS which is selected to simulate inundation. Through inputting the D/B and damage estimation, it is able to estimate the total damage (only direct damage) that is the amount of cost to recover the socio-economic activities back to the safe level before flood did occur. The last module suggests the economic analysis index (B/C ratio) with Multidimensional Flood Damage. Consequently, ASFCM suggests the reference index in constructing flood control measures to reduce water-related damage and decision-makers can choose the proper flood control measures in the socio-economic aspects.

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