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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2016, 5 (1-2)   Published: 2016-02-15
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The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on China in 2015

Hang SU, Chuanhai QIAN, Hua GU, Qian WANG
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (1-2): 1;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh1.01
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During 2015 typhoon season (1 January to 15 October), the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea had registered 25 tropical cyclone genesis. 6 of them, including KUJIRA (1508), CHAN-HOM (1509), LINFA (1510), SOUDELOR (1513), DUJUAN (1521) and MUJIGAE (1522), made landfall over China's coastal areas. Despite the high level of activity (the historical average in the same period of 1949-2014 is 21.6), fewer tropical cyclones made landfall over China (the historical average is 6.6). However, these 6 tropical cyclones had an averaged intensity up to 41 m/s, significantly enhanced compared with the multi-year average of 32.8 m/s. The death toll from the 8 tropical cyclones affected China in 2015 is 73. SOUDELOR claimed the most affected population, death toll, missing person, emergency aiding population, damaged home, and MUJIGAE claimed the most direct economic loss. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) mean official track forecast errors in 2015 were smaller than the multi-year means at all forecast times.

Analysis on Abnormal Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error of ECMWF-IFS in the Western North Pacific

Wei Xu, Liangbo Qi, Yugang Du, Li Xia
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (1-2): 12;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh1.02
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By considering distance error and direction error, Tropical Cyclone (TC) track forecasts with abnormal forecast error (AFE) at lead time of 48 h by ECMWF-IFS are selected out from 2010 to 2013. Factors closely related to AFE cases are investigated. There are 7 factors which are closely related to AFE cases. The most common one is Landfall or Passing through big island (LP) which appears 21 times among all 55 AFE cases. But LP often coexists with other factors to cause AFE cases. The second in the list is Coexistence with other TC or cloud cluster (CO) which affects more than one third of all AFE cases. Besides those 7 factors, fault of TCtracker also results in some AFE cases. There are no simple indicators for forecasters to anticipate a possible AFE case in advance. It seems that forecasters still have to anticipate AFE cases by their experiences and with synthetic analysis on all available data. Some possible ways to improve AFE cases are discussed and proposed to forecasters. That includes relying on products from ensemble prediction system or guidance from other models, simple translation process and manual analysis of TC track by forecasters under some circumstances.

Tropical Cyclone Occurrence Probability Forecasting Model in the Western North Pacific

Jae-Won Choi and Yumi Cha
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (1-2): 23;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh1.03
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A seasonal probability prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (5°-25°N, 110°-180°E) was developed using a simple logistic regression method. The predictors used in this model were total five: 850 hPa relative vorticity, 200-850 hPa vertical wind shear, 600 hPa relative humidity, 300 hPa equivalent potential temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). Four predictors except for SST were obtained from differences of spatial-averaged value between May and January, and time average of Niño-3.4 index from February to April was used to consider the SST effects. As a result of prediction for the TC genesis from June to December during 1951 to 2007, years that the model forecasts are 21 years among the total 28 years when the observed TC genesis frequency was higher than normal year. The overall predictability was about 75%, and the model was also verified statistically through cross validation analysis using a method of the hindcast.

Diabatic Heating and Convective Asymmetries During Rapid Intensity Changes of Tropical Cyclones over North Indian Ocean

B.GEETHA and S.BALACHANDRAN
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2016, 5 (1-2): 32;  doi: 10.6057/2016TCRRh1.04
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Rapid changes in Tropical Cyclone (TC) structure and intensity are the most difficult aspects of TC forecasting. The intensity and structural changes associated with rapid intensification (RI) and rapid weakening (RW) instances of TCs of North Indian Ocean (NIO) are analysed based on 5 cases each for RI and RW. The vertical profiles of heat (Q1) and moisture (Q2) based on heat and moisture budget equations are analysed to bring out the role of diabatic heating during the RI and RW processes. The associated structural changes are analysed based on the Fourier first order wave number-1 asymmetry in the precipitation patterns associated with RI and RW instances. During RI process, there are 2 predominant Q1 maxima associated with latent heat release near the TC centre, one in the upper troposphere and the other in the lower troposphere. During RW process, there is a single dominant Q1 and Q2 maxima in the mid-troposphere. Regarding the structural changes, there is a pronounced front-back asymmetry in both RI and RW cases. The asymmetry amplitude in the inner core is lower in the case
of RI events but, is quite high for RW events. Thus, RW events are characterised by large convective asymmetry.

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