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Tropical Cyclone Research and Review  
  Tropical Cyclone Research and Review--2014, 3 (3)   Published: 2014-09-15
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Tropical Cyclone Activity over the western North Pacific in 2013

Ming Ying, Lina Bai, Ruifen Zhan
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2014, 3 (3): 131;  doi: 10.6057/2014TCRR03.01
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This paper presents a review of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2013 and examines the main factors that influenced the pattern of activity. The 2013 season was characterized by an above-normal genesis number of named storms, near-normal total occurrence frequency, and near-normal accumulated cyclone energy. Both the tropical SSTs in the Pacific sector and the East Asian summer monsoon contributed to favorable conditions for active cyclogenesis. The monsoon circulation also controlled the TC track patterns. Three prevailing tracks were identified, along with four stages of track pattern transition that were characterized by different combinations of prevailing tracks. The different track patterns were associated with variations in the regional circulation, which in turn were closely related to the seasonal variation of the monsoon. The regional circulation was also influenced by the intra-seasonal oscillation. In particular, the quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) was important during the early and late seasons, while the 30–60 day oscillation was significant in the active season from late July to early October. The QBWO mainly influenced the circulation in the subtropics and the midlatitudes, while the 30–60 day oscillation was related to the Pacific–Japan pattern, variation in the subtropical high, and tropical cyclonic circulation during the early, main, and late seasons, respectively.

HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function

Zhan Zhang, Vijay Tallapragada, Chanh Kieu, Samuel Trahan, Weiguo Wang
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2014, 3 (3): 145;  doi: 10.6057/2014TCRR03.02
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In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme.
Verification for the 2011-2012 North Atlantic hurricane seasons shows that HWRF-EPS outperforms its deterministic versions at all lead times for both track and intensity forecast errors. Statistical characteristics are investigated and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the HWRF-EPS. The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error for track and intensity in the HWRF-EPS indicated that the spread is likely more useful as a predictor of forecast error when it has moderately low values. Rank histogram analysis shows that the HWRF-EPS is well dispersed in both track and intensity forecasts except for the systematic errors inherited from the deterministic version. Further comparison with 2012 hurricane season’s top-flight models shows improved track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF-EPS.

Development of NWP Based Objective Cyclone Prediction System (CPS) for North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones — Evaluation of Performance

S. D. Kotal, S. K. Bhattacharya, S. K. Roy Bhowmik
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2014, 3 (3): 162;  doi: 10.6057/2014TCRR03.03
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An objective NWP based Cyclone Prediction System (CPS) has been developed and implemented at IMD for operational cyclone forecasting over the north Indian Ocean (NIO). The five forecast components of CPS are (a) Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for track prediction, (c) Statistical Cyclone Intensity Prediction (SCIP), (d) rapid intensification and (e) decay model to forecast intensity after the landfall.
Verification shows GPP had higher probability of detection (0.98) and lower false alarm ratio (0.27) with higher critical success index (0.72). Mean track error of MME ranged from 74 km at 12 h to 200 km at 72 h and reduced by 27% to 52% for 36 h to 72 h forecast during 2009-2013. The mean forecast errors of landfall position ranged from 56 km at 24 h to 137 km at 72 h and landfall time error ranged from 3.6 h at 24 h to 6.1 h at 72 h. Mean intensity errors of SCIP ranged from 5.4 kt at 12 h to 16.9 kt at 72 h. The probabilistic rapid intensification forecast was skillful compared to climatology. The 6-hourly decaying intensity (after landfall) errors ranged from 3 kt to 4.9 kt. Results demonstrate the potential of CPS for operational cyclone forecast over the NIO.

A Global View of the Landfall Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones

Hironori Fudeyasu, Shun Hirose, Hiroaki Yoshioka, Rie Kumazawa, Shota Yamasaki
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2014, 3 (3): 178;  doi: 10.6057/2014TCRR03.04
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This report presents a climatology of the landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) by country. Landfalling TCs can produce strong winds, storm surges and severe flooding that may result in loss of life and widespread damages. Although historically many governments have estimated the frequency of TC landfall for their own country, less work has been undertaken from a global viewpoint. This report addresses that gap by presenting a comparative assessment that may assist global efforts toward disaster risk reduction through improved understanding of the relative level of exposure of countries to TCs. The various aspects of the climatology of TC landfalls for each country are provided. Using the definition of a TC landfall as the intersection of the TC track with a coastline, eleven countries were detected as having an average of at least one landfall per year. China has the highest rate of TC landfalls. The Philippines ranks second and Japan third. A lot of countries that face the North Western Pacific were included in TC-Landfall countries, which is attributed to the high rate of TC formation over the basin.

North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project

Munehiko Yamaguchi, Tetsuo Nakazawa, Shunsuke Hoshino
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review. 2014, 3 (3): 193;  doi: 10.6057/2014TCRR03.05
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The WMO/TCP and WWRP launched the North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) in 2009 to explore the utility of ensemble forecasts, including multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs, and to promote such products for operational TC forecasting. Operational global mediumrange ensembles, which have been exchanged in real-time in a CXML format under the initiative of the WMO GIFS-TIGGE Working Group, have been used to create ensemble products of TC tracks that were used by the Typhoon Committee Members and forecasters participating in the SWFDP in Southeast Asia through a password-protected website developed and maintained by the JMA.
In some cases many or all of the ensembles have simultaneously predicted small or large ensemble spreads in TC tracks. The implication is that multi-model ensemble products provide forecasters with additional information on forecast certainty or uncertainty and thus increase the level of confidence in the forecasts. Another important outcome of the project was the responses to surveys conducted by the WMO/TCP and WWRP and also by the WMO GIFS-TIGGE Working Group. The responses confirmed that ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members have routinely accessed the website and have recognized the usefulness of the ensemble products available on the website for operational TC forecasting.

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